Summary Technicals, Valuation, and other statistics point to change. The bull market is over. Investors need to consider action to protect their portfolios. I have significantly reduced my net exposure via short positions in overvalued stocks. Followers may remember that on August 31st, I published an article (see here) and stated that "The recent drop is an … [Read more...]
S&P 500 Still In A Bull Market
Summary The market dropped because many stocks were fully valued. Many stocks have now corrected. Basic macros: GDP growth and normal yield curve are positives. Technicals have weakened but still appear to support the bull case. Investors should not panic and assess both fundamentals and technicals before changing their views significantly. The recent drop is … [Read more...]
When Shorting Maximizes Portfolio Performance
Summary Short portfolios can do very poorly during strong bull markets. A loss on the short end can severely damage a long-short portfolio. Long only beats a consistently long-short portfolio in the long run. However, employing a dynamic strategy which goes long-short during bear markets can increase returns, reduce losses and beat a Long only portfolio. I've … [Read more...]
Two Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500
Summary Everyday investors are exposed to a lot of market noise. By monitoring these daily and monthly charts an investor can stay on the right side of the market. Price action along with the 100-day ma provided several profitable opportunities. I show 6 examples and how an investor could see the turning point. The monthly chart helps clear potential noise from … [Read more...]
History Predicts The S&P 500 In 2014 Will Be …
What can the first two months of the year tell us about what to expect in 2014 for the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY)? This article answers that question by looking at the historical monthly returns of January and February both separately and combined. In addition to these, a two-month return is calculated and the forecasting ability for the full-year is put under the microscope. … [Read more...]
