If you’ve ever played a team sport, you’ve experienced a game that was a mismatch on paper. Now usually that game goes according to form. The better team scores early and often, and the inferior team doesn’t sniff a win. But sometimes the game gets tight. Sometimes the better team makes a few unforced errors, and the inferior team capitalizes. Sometimes there’s a lucky bounce … [Read more...]
Six Ways NIRP Is Economically Negative
If you have any doubt that we’ve wandered into a new and unexplored economic universe, consider this number: $12.6 trillion. That’s the face value of government and corporate bonds currently trading worldwide with nominal yields below zero. Note that word trading. These bonds are in fact trading. Liquidity has not dried up. An active market exists for negative-yield bonds. … [Read more...]
A Change Has Come
Summary Technicals, Valuation, and other statistics point to change. The bull market is over. Investors need to consider action to protect their portfolios. I have significantly reduced my net exposure via short positions in overvalued stocks. Followers may remember that on August 31st, I published an article (see here) and stated that "The recent drop is an … [Read more...]
S&P 500 Still In A Bull Market
Summary The market dropped because many stocks were fully valued. Many stocks have now corrected. Basic macros: GDP growth and normal yield curve are positives. Technicals have weakened but still appear to support the bull case. Investors should not panic and assess both fundamentals and technicals before changing their views significantly. The recent drop is … [Read more...]
Greece: What’s a Hellenic Republic to Do?
Sovereign and corporate balance sheet advisors are normally somewhat between discreet and secretive, partly so as not to draw too much attention to a client that may be struggling, but also because they don’t perceive it as appropriate to provide personal opinions about topics such as debt relief or to hog the limelight, in contrast with the proverbial corporate finance … [Read more...]
