The Winds Of Change FatAlpha Active portfolio dropped in line with the market last month (-5%), while the Market Neutral portfolio jumped +3%. Since inception in September the Market Neutral strategy is up almost 7%. And not only is zero leveraged used, it has been underinvested. While the target gross exposure is 100% it has been running mostly at under 50%! What … [Read more...]
Archives for February 2016
How Trinity Investors Could Still Get Burned
Summary Historical guidance and implied optimism from the CC made me too bullish on the stock. Management's lack of further details and recent action (or lack of) on its part are bearish. TRN is a cyclical stock. Its current down-cycle could result in significantly lower EPS. As a value investor, holding Trinity (NYSE:TRN) has been an expensive lesson. I leaned on … [Read more...]
Trinity’s Ugly Earnings Release (Guidance) Is Shocking
Summary Trinity beat earnings expectations yet again. Shockingly lower guidance should have been communicated in previous call as one could speculate that management may have had some idea. TRN has a lot of explaining to do during the call which will be a must listen/read for shareholders. Was mistakenly too bullish, and will be reducing my holding. Trinity … [Read more...]
Joel Greenblatt
Joel Greenblatt is the founder of Gotham Capital, a investment partnership that achieved 40% annualized returns for twenty years after its founding in 1985. He is a professor on he adjunct faculty of Columbia Business School, the Chief Strategist for Formulat Investing, the former chairman of the board of a Fortune 500 company, and author of You Can Be a Stock Market Genius … [Read more...]
A Change Has Come
Summary Technicals, Valuation, and other statistics point to change. The bull market is over. Investors need to consider action to protect their portfolios. I have significantly reduced my net exposure via short positions in overvalued stocks. Followers may remember that on August 31st, I published an article (see here) and stated that "The recent drop is an … [Read more...]
LinkedIn: Why So Surprised At The Drop?
Summary Earnings beat but guidance disappointed. Guidance was in line with the pattern of growth of the last few years. The stock dropped because the market has realized that growth will not be what it has been. Valuing the stock at a growth that continues but at a lower rate (in line with history) results in a stock price of $75. LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) … [Read more...]
Proofpoint: A Short Idea For 2016
Summary Despite high growth, market leadership and some of the largest clients in the world, the company has yet to turn a profit in its 14-year history. Competition that includes Cisco, Microsoft, Symantec and HP is fierce which results in little pricing power and risk of losing out to the bigger name that is better capitalized. The stock has been used as … [Read more...]
