Out of all the animals we keep on our “farm”, chickens are the only ones that bring me no joy. Chickens are, by nature, brutal and cruel. They will torture the weak to death with their pecks, not because they have to, but because they can. It’s the way their brains are hard-wired, and it works for them, as a species. So I pretend that chickens aren’t evil and I’m not complicit. … [Read more...]
Will Shrinking CB Balance Sheets Bring Down the Market?
Investors probably underestimate the tailwind from global central banks quantitative easing. Over the last five years, the expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet has expanded and with it the S&P 500. In the chart below, by Michael Lebowitz of 720 Global we see this relationship. (Source: 720 Global) Deutsche Bank published a chart which shows the balance … [Read more...]
Absurdities in today’s markets
John Mauldin and Yra Harris both touched on the absurdities we see today in the financial markets. As Mauldin puts it "I have gone from the occasional smile to scratching my head now and then to “WTF” moments several times a week." I couldn't agree more. With their permission to reprint here on my blog, I've posted parts which you shouldn't miss. Click on the titles if you … [Read more...]
The First Real Evidence Of A Bubble
Today I’d like to talk about what I think is the first real evidence of a bubble forming in the global markets. We’ve been hearing this since at least 2014. And while I too convinced myself that 2016 was it, which result in a failed attempt to time the market, I believe the first real signs of a bubble have just appeared. But that too doesn’t mean it will burst right away or … [Read more...]
What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been
This year has been a year of surprises as conventional wisdom-based forecasts have proven to be like oral agreements: not worth the paper on which they are written. The coming year promises to bring more confusion and volatility as the markets are preparing for the U.S. to be a Trumpian utopia of wealth creation. I caution against blindly accepting this narrative for it will … [Read more...]
